It's enough to make even Rishi Sunak cry....

THERE is a mantra that may have been heard a lot in the corridors of Whitehall and Westminster this past year. And it is a mantra that has always cost the public purse dear.

It is the eternal cry of the embattled politician, administrator or legislator and it is music to the ears of Public Relations men the world over:

“We must be seen to be doing something...”

It may go a long way to explain why our dear government, backs to the wall in the Covid crisis, has been so busy throwing vast sums of taxpayers' money – this generation and the next two – into the corporate whirlpool run and controlled by their chums in the City and the Corporate headquarters of the world. The place where the politicians themselves hope to end up, guzzling greedily in their declining years.

What the mantra means is never mind what exists we need something new, bigger, shinier that we can “announce” to our public.

So, faced with the disaster that the stocks of PPE so willingly dumped during 'austerity' turned out fundamental when the chips were down, had to be resurrected by spewing dodgy contracts in the direction of any persuasive tycoon willing to swallow a few million of tax money.

So it was that faced with a similar and sudden realisation that actually having a few score spare ITC/HDU wards in mothballs was essential really not just extravagant that cash had to be hurled into the private sector to secure what should have been there already.

And when the shortage of what used to be called Iron Lungs, dumped due to 'austerity' became an issue yet more public money was found to persuade sharp eyed dealers to get busy. Or not very.

So it is that those pointless, unstaffable but hugely impressive and expensive and brilliantly mis-named Nightingale Hospitals came to be built, or at least 'created'. And then dumped, unused.

The list goes on and has now reached its zenith, although to be fair this time the effect has been impressive if arguably over priced.

I refer here to the the fact that, if you throw vast sums of money and promissory notes at organisations used to working in these difficult fields they will come up trumps in short order. I refer to 'Big Pharma' and its truly impressive ability to get brand new vaccines to jab-ready condition in a matter of months.

But there is more, for we have also witnessed the sudden development, construction and staffing of scores of vaccination hubs to deliver the inoculation that will, in the end drive coronavirus down to influenza status. When the job will be handed back to the systems already in place for the job, if tragically under-funded before the sudden need.

Exactly what all this will cost us, the taxpayer, down the line is a closely guarded secret just now. I have noticed that even Rishi Sunak's eyes appear to be watering at times. It will be a lot and take decades to amortise.

Yep, they sure have been seen to be doing something. When not justified by emergency as they are here many of these grand designs would be called vanity projects. Like HS2. What was needed was more investment in the northern transport services, especially east-west. What we have got is a more comfy ride for 20 minutes less for the London-Manchester brigade, usefully passing Birmingham en route. And a chance to charge a lot more for it.

The real problem is that after any period in which Government thinks it has to be able to announce big solutions to urgent problems the same old, same old cry goes up: Can't do that; no money, austerity... all is austerity.

Sharing the cost of covid-19 - FAIRLY!

THE huge cost of coronavirus needs to be shared fairly by the population of Britain and in accordance with their means. Only income tax can do this. Any other means is unfair and falls most heavily on those least able to pay - hard working families, the poor and pensioners on fixed incomes. And at the same time is most easily avoided or reduced by those most wealthy and able to pay.

For that reason I was horrified to hear my local council considering raising council tax to meet such costs! This is the most unfair tax of all, levied solely on the worth of a property which for vast numbers of people is not in any way connected to their ability to pay.

So I have further copied my letter to my MP, the Rt Hon James Cleverly with suitable additional comments. I sincerely hope others may feel inclined to take similar action. 

TEXT BEGINS: 

Dear Mr Cleverly,

You may have seen that I wrote this week to the Halstead Gazette regarding the costs of the coronavirus response and in particular how this may impact local councils. While my points were  directed specifically at the Braintree District Council they represent an opinion which I believe may be much more widely held.

I would ask you in your position as a local MP and former chair of the Conservative Party to look into this issue and to defend your local constituents against what may prove to be an unfair burden when compared to the national emergency. Indeed, a post code lottery, as our media friends are inclined to title such attacks on the hard working, the poorer and the pensioner.

TEXT OF LETTER: I was horrified to read that Braintree Council is considering raising council tax to pay for the cost of coronavirus. This has been a national emergency and  all the costs should be handled nationally. That way it can be evenly and fairly spread across all tax payers including the filthy rich. Instead a council tax hike will fall unfairly and unevenly on the hard working and the poorer as well as pensioners.

Typical Tory policy of course for Government to dodge its responsibilities and leave the locals to pick up the pieces,

Shame on you if you go ahead instead of fighting this shambolic Government. ENDS

What is wrong with this Government? Can it not get anything right?

I was writing this as Johnson announced further relaxations...

At the outset I have to confess a serious distrust of all Tories and a horror of corruption in high places. So there is no chance I shall be soft in my criticism of Johnson and co. Still less when they have committed the cardinal sin of allowing a special adviser to take such extraordinary control over governmental affairs.

And of course panic causes strange effects. And there has never been more reason for panic than the onset of a killer virus that is a global pandemic. And one for which there is no obvious treatment and as yet no real sign of a vaccine.

But frankly events of the past few months go much further than mere failure to come up to scratch in the extraordinarily tough environment of a global catastrophe.

It all started with the utterly insane idea of 'herd immunity'. For that you need 60-70% of your sample to have had the disease AND be guaranteed immune. That might be OK for the common cold but this things kills and leaves others virtually disabled for life. And while spread is uncomfortably fast it is also too slow to wait that long. The man who said it should have been removed as far from the levers of power as possible. The Isle of Rockall for example. But instead they invited him in... and he is still here!

At my age and with my experience of emergency planning I am utterly astonished at the mess we have got ourselves in. Until, that is, I consider the previous decade of austerity.

Emergencies are planned for. That is a given, or should be. They always happen. Usually at the worst possible time. But this is what you have a Civil Service for. Complete with scientific and medical and technological and logistical expertise to look into the future, judge the need, and provide the essentials.

But the Tories are notoriously bad at planning ahead. And even worse at spending in advance of need. And worse still at laying the foundations of a public and welfare state.

So in the years of austerity they have cut and cut again. And those cuts have more than decimated our levels of preparedness. Made far worse by an accountancy juggle called Just In Time. And another called Current Cost Accounting.

Let me explain a little. Under older regimes you bought in advance what you needed for say one year's production, generation, activity, emergency. And stockpiled it. This was, the bean counters considered too costly. Expensive warehouses, armies of men with clip boards checking date, lifetime etc.

How much better they said to make it when you need it. So empty the warehouses, sack the checkers. Calculate your costs on the real costs, not cost plus storage and maintenance. Prices will come down. Prices did not come down. You may have noticed a steady rise.

And then there was the cost of building stuff. Depreciation. Build a hospital for £100m and calculate that it would lose value at say £5m a year, reaching zero at 20 years when replacement needed to be considered. But wait. That might be OK for Government but businesses need assets. So value the hospital at the cost of replacement RIGHT NOW. That way the asset would grow year on year and you could borrow squillions against the assets. Privatise those state businesses and guess what? They all use CCA instead of Historic Cost Accounting. They all have inflated asset books and vast debts, protected by assets that are actually not worth much at all.

How does this affect Government and emergency planning? Well for emergencies you need hospitals bigger than you do for day by day activity. So some wards were maintained but kept empty against sudden need. Some Intensive Care Units (or HDUs or whatever) ditto. And a score or two of big stuff like ventilators. If you do not have them when the crisis comes you have to build Nightingale units Just In Time.. too late!

And PPE? Yes of course, millions of items in store, kept under review and replaced as time wore on. Hand it all to the private sector and guess what? They dump it, fail to replace, argue for Just in Time (while actually CCA-ing the stuff!). And yes they did. So no PPE when it is needed. And you are not in the buying club either so a scramble to find it when you need it. People die.

And arrangements to use private services? Not kept up to date so not available at time of need. And so thousands of elderly crisis patients are sent back to care home to make space in the hospitals for the crisis you failed to plan for. And thousands die in agony, killing many of their carers.

And now we read of vast millions of contracts placed with unqualified and even insolvent companies to supply critical equipment. And without any safeguarding procedures. And often with mates of cabinet members.

And the much-vaunted Civil Service, who know about all these things and have done for years? Retired, redundant, too costly, austerity.... replaced with unskilled, incompetent special advisers with agendas and secret deals.

You can only blame Johnson and his bunch of buffoons. They were picked for their enthusiasm for Brexit, not their intelligence, experience or proven skills. They are incompetent and inept. They listen too willingly to their backers and their special advisers, fooled into believing these people know best.

Meanwhile the relatively few Tories with real public service ethics have been sidelined or left to grow old and go fallow. There is no way back for a generation. This cadre of clowns has been given five years (FIVE YEARS) to govern by another crackpot decision. They are praying that two things will happen: 1 - we will all forget what utter idiots they were and 2 - that in time they will get the hang of it.

Meanwhile people die, people go hungry, children miss school, families collapse, suicides happen, jobs vanish, food fails to reach the shelves, prices soar, medicines disappear, prices soar, theatre and halls close, libraries vanish, museums get dusty, HS2 never appears but costs squillions, Trident gets replaced but still isn't any use...

Can we really let this go on for another four years?

Defending the indefensible and other disastrous errors

THE nation has just watched a Prime Minister commit professional suicide. Well most of us have. Two other audiences remain, those who did not watch and those who believe Boris Johnson is the messiah.
It is possible I am exaggerating but I doubt it. For Boris Johnson did not merely defend his special adviser Dominic Cummings. He did not merely refuse to sack him. He endorsed his actions. Which means the buck has moved up a level to the Prime Minister's own desk.
As a retired PR adviser and consultant I listened in mounting horror to the foolishness of Johnson's words. Bad enough that he chose to defend the indefensible actions of his man. Bad enough too that he should have called his actions reasonable and legal. But then he set about lying to show that the interpretation put upon the regulations was justified by the words in them.
This is not only untrue but the facts of this case do not meet even the extreme interpretation that Johnson has put upon them.


If you brief a senior executive on a breach of the rules you have to make sure they understand what their audience understood. Stay Home. Short sweet and eminently supported by the man himself and all of his acolytes. And resulting in huge personal, emotional and familial sacrifices by the population. Not sit at home and think about it. Not figure out how to avoid it. Not use your heartfelt desire to do something else. But Stay Home.


It is worth just examining the probity of Cummings claim, which Johnson so handsomely endorsed.
He and his wife are both high powered employees with work demanding long hours and flexibility. They live in a nice London house with a four year old son. To ensure his care they have a nanny. I will just say that again since it is something the media seems unable to grasp. They have a nanny. Presumably to provide support for their child when they are not available. Hmmm.
But beyond that they will have a wide circle of friends in the area. And they both have family working and living in London. Some of Cummings chums and family work in number 10. So the last problem they were confronted with when Mrs Cummings announced she had covid-19 symptoms was child care.
The regulations state that in this circumstance the family should self-isolate, at home. Mrs C would use one room and facilities; the others the rest until things changed or they had been tested or 14 days had elapsed. No problem you might say for the Cummings family.
But he must have asked himself, why do we want people to stay home? Surely they can do their jankers somewhere else? No. Track and trace requires that the trackers and tracers know where you are. If they spoke to the source of Mrs C 's infection they would come knocking on the Cummings's door. No one home? Where are they? They could find them but it would take time.
And by then Mrs C would have given it to Mr C, the child may have it, the people they went close to at the motorway stop where they took a pee, fettled the child and bought fluids... well anyway you get the point.


The rules have a purpose, the purpose was the safety of the entire family including the four year old child. Cummings ignored all that and decided he was above the rules and could do what he wanted – see his parents, honour his mum's birthday and get out of the London hell hole while they recovered.
And he had the infernal cheek to refuse to quit, laugh at the issue, tell us he doesn't care how it looks (thus insulting his boss and the cabinet). And then his boss throws the entire covid-19 strategy under a bus along with the reputation of the Tory party. For what?
To save the neck of a man who is an avowed anarchist. Judgement? Johnson never has had any and has never proved it so conclusively. Now the issue is – Johnson

Do as I tell you, not what I do...

WHERE to begin on the real background to Dominic Cummings scuttle off to mummy? Maybe I start by saying how deeply ashamed I am to be British these days. I hate that. Britain always stood for something. Now it stands for nothing. Worse than nothing.

Many years ago, when a company I worked for was struggling at a crossroads in a fast developing business a colleague said we were “in danger of losing our sense of true north”. He was so right. And this is where this appalling Government is leading us – astray. Off the path. Away from the moral high ground into the depths of the talgy wood, where the really nasty gripper grabbers walk.

LET us begin by examining what is represented by Cummings actions and public acceptance of the lockdown rules. If the rules are flexible for Cummings will anyone follow them? Well if he accepted he was wrong and resigned no harm would be done. If he did not accept he was wrong but was sacked for his behaviour the rules would be reinforced.

But if he claims what he did was fine and the PM and Cabinet – as they are – back him then irreparable harm will be done. How much will it matter?

WE are now past the first peak and are said to be reasonably confident there will not be a second. But just in case we are putting a major test and track service in place to contain any resurgence. This process was unwisely stopped only a week or two into the crisis. On that basis it must be the case that if the lockdown is eased too fast a second peak becomes more likely.

And that will be made even more certain if public adherence to the rules is damaged by a piece of favouritism by the PM and Cabinet.

So what do they really think they are playing at? Advisers are ten a penny, here today and gone tomorrow hirelings. If the public good can be best served by dumping or even better sacking him then that is the right decision.

But they are busy chummying up to back him. Risking their entire lockdown strategy on the mis-directed whim of a sick man who may not even have been in full possession of his wits.

THE moral bankruptcy and the dereliction of public duty this implies is terrifying. It betrays a Government infinitely more interested in its own power and dogma than the well being of the public it serves.

That this can already by implied by their earlier failures – especially in the area of care homes – leads to only one real conclusion:

Boris Johnson and his Tory Government have no interest in the well-being of the British people. I so accuse. I just wish they would sue me for libelling the cretinous, criminal and morally corrupt bunch of them.

The Cummings and Goings of Dominic:

27 March - Cummings seen running along Downing Street shortly after the prime minister posts video saying he has contracted virus.
28 and 29 March - Over weekend, Cummings is said to have developed coronavirus symptoms.

30 March - Downing Street confirms Cummings is self-isolating after developing symptoms of the virus.

31 March - Joint investigation by The Guardian and the Daily Mirror, shows Cummings travelled to his family's farm in Durham.

31 March - Cummings's family spoken to by the police. Durham Constabulary said: Officers made contact with the owners of the address who confirmed that the individual in question was present and was self-isolating in part of the house.

14 April - Cummings is pictured in Downing Street after recovering from coronavirus.

22 May - The story breaks.

23 May - Cummings statement claims it was reasonable action to protect child; Number 10 backs him.

POINTS: Cummings family have a nice established home in London . They have a nanny to care for their four year old son. He is a well-paid adviser. Many family members work in Government at Number 10 and could have supported him. He drove while unwell. It is reported that the weekend he drove to Durham was his mother's birthday.

Has coronavirus murdered the bucket list?

HOW likely are you to go jetting around the world after we finally escape from coronavirus? Will you really want to spend 10 or more hours in an aircraft with 2-300 other people, all breathing very much the same air just to say 'been there, done that'? Really?
If we examine first what turned a Wuhan epidemic into a world wide pandemic killing hundreds of thousands of innocent people we find it was aviation what dunnit.
China is not the place it was a few decades ago. No way. Today it is as highly connected as any other country.
And the people of Wuhan – all umpty-ump millions – are just like us. They have bucket lists and reasons to fly far and wide.
So when sometime in December 2019 the first few people got infected with coronavirus they had not the foggiest idea it had happened. Neither did anyone else at first. So they got on their planes and flew far and wide. And into Wuhan came many thousands more who sampled the delights and set off home, with more souvenirs than they realised.
It is no good blaming China for this part of the disaster – they knew no more in the first few days than anyone else. Forget where the virus started – once it was travelling it was inevitably going to be a pandemic. Days would pass before any symptoms raised alarm bells.

Looking back at the great influenza pandemic of the post WWI decade and which killed in the multi-millions, what spread that was soldiers going home. It originated maybe in Spain but it took the armies of the suddenly peaceful world to get it world-wide.
So here at Wuhan. And we know it and the airlines of the world are virtually grounded. Or should be. And the cost of this disaster, which their profitable activities took to the world, is so great that they will never be the same again. No really, never.
For even when they begin to fly again they will be a shadow of their former selves. And I believe we, their customers, will be harder to find. Much harder.
For not only will we all be a lot more cautious but two economic realities will bite hard. We will all have less money to spend, recovering individually and nationally, and the cost of flying will never be as low as it was 2019.

We all know more today about the reality of what happens on board. At 30,000 feet the air is thin as Everest and bitterly cold – sub-zero. Aircraft cannot carry oxygen for their passengers so they use what they have in the cabin and draw in and heat up extra – about 25-30%. They operate the cabin at about 9lbs per sq in instead of the 14.8lbs at ground level.
To be fair this gives them a complete air change every few minutes. But pretty much all of it will have passed through pretty well all of the lungs on board by then...
And while on the ground the air is mostly still and most viruses fall harmlessly down, in the cabin it is different. Your mouth throws air and virus-laden droplets forward. They are heavy and affected by air resistance so they fall down and six feet is safe. In the air they fall into the back of the seat in front and hair of the occupant. And your nose points down, for a reason. A sneeze generates droplets at 200 mph. Should you sneeze (and who does not at 500 knots in dry cabin air?) those droplets will fall in your lap or on you magazine or tray. The cabin air is on the move all the time. Those droplets could be anywhere in a few seconds.
Of course in a full load of say 250 passengers your average 757 or A380 the manifest will include only a few coronavirus carriers. Say back in Wuhan there were four on each flight out. The re-infection number (R) back then was high, maybe 3-4. So in the first hour say the four infected 12-16. They in turn hit 36-48 in the next hour and they got say 120 in the next... by the time they landed practically everyone on board, including crew, could be infected.
Life is never quite that cruel but even if only 50 stepped off with the virus the outlook was already pretty grim. And that was one aircraft.

When the airlines get flying again is an open question and what rules they will have to follow is unknown as yet. But one thing I suggest is certain. And leads to another:

• Unless we have a vaccine the rules will be draconian.
• And even if we do, only those WITH immunity will get free, unfettered travel.

I suggest the first real casualty in the travel industry will be the bucket list.

Complacency at the heart of the process

The row that has erupted about Keir Starmer's attack on the PM over the care home situation has reduced to the level of a 'you did-I didn't' playground spat.
But however you view the quote that Starmer used, what it demonstrates utterly is that the Government was complacent at the time and has remained so since - and that they were not following the science.
It was first published on February 25 and remained in place until March 12.
By Feb 25 it was well known that Covid-19 was into France and appearing in Britain. Indeed current evidence suggest we may have at least one death in January. But leaving that aside. Everyone knows that care homes are rife with viral influenza during the flu season.
So how could anyone state that "it was very unlikely that anyone receiving care in a care home or the community will become infected (with coronavirus)".
But worse the incubation period for coronavirus was not established but it was quickly know that it was up to 14 days. So any advice given at that time needed to be updated daily.
The tragedy is that another two weeks passed without any attempt to ensure that major steps were taken at all levels and in all situations to build up reserves of testing kits, PPE, oxygen, oxygen delivery kit and ventilators.
It all smacks of a piece of guesswork by an adviser rather than anything scientifically based. Indeed one could be forgiven for fearing it has more to do with herd immunity theory. If so it must surely be time for a wholesale clear out of the special adviser dug out at Downing Street?

The who, what, when, and why of letting thousands die in care homes....

ROUGHLY a month ago I wrote about the spiralling deaths in care homes and wondered how it was happening. I even suggested it might be part of the Tory Government strategy to let the deaths rip in care homes rather than add them to the burden threatening to overwhelm the NHS.
Today in the House a new leader of the Labour party finally brought the PM to book on the subject. Oh the mad Tory supporters are busy claiming the advice back in March that care homes were not much at risk from coronavirus was taken out of context. Indeed Johnson lied once again by saying Starmer was wrong.
He was not. As clear as the indecent majority won by Johnson and co the care homes were told not to worry; they were not at significant risk. It was tosh at the time. It has been rubbish all along. And it is now visibly bollocks.
It will be some time before we know what the actual number of covid-19 deaths in care homes is. But it is already well above the numbers quoted by the forensically careful Keir Starmer.
I shall watch that row burn with interest. But today I would like to remind everyone of what all this represents, starting with the fact that people put into care homes are old, sickly, vulnerable and in many cases , alone. And that in the main the care they receive is not about life saving but about life caring and, if hospice does not intervene, providing a peaceful environment in which to slip this mortal coil. It's what they and their families pay for.

So the questions must be:

• WHY in God's name were those found to be ill with covid-19 NOT sent to hospital to receive intensive care and ventilation?
• WHO decided they should instead die an horrific and suffering death while spreading their dread disease among those brave enough to serve them?
• WHO indeed was it who decided that if they did get to hospital but were deemed not worthy of all this they were sent back whence they came, to die a horrific etc etc...
• WHO massaged the figures so that for weeks care home deaths were NOT reported at all?
• WHEN and by whom was that decision finally changed, only for the figures to continue being fudged?
• WHEN were GPs told or guided NOT to list coronavirus on the death certificate but only add it as contributing factor?
• WHEN will Johnson, Hancock and co finally admit the truth?

Cough... ahem... excuse me would you mind terribly if...

YOU might be forgiven, this Sunday, the 10th of May, 2020 (mark this date) to think the Tory Government had suddenly discovered clemency, charity, compassion.
Suddenly the harsh words and deeds have given way to softness and
kindness. But you would be wrong.
The slogans that are essential to any major campaign, be it to defeat
coronavirus or Corbynistas, are necessarily firm, aggressive,
positive. Stop. Save. Protect. Indoors. Lives. The NHS. Now we have stay alert,
control the virus, save lives. And uncertainty now
reigns supreme. I am alert. Where should I be, being alert? I cannot
control the virus, even the scientists cannot do that. Save Lives –
I can do that. How? It is complete bollox.
And if it were the work of a paid agency you would not pay them. Can
you honestly imagine this being the outcome of hiring Tim Bell, or
the Saatchis? Really? No. This is the
standard camel produced by the committee for race horse production.
Ungainly, unsettled and unappealing. Donkeys are not in it. They had a strong
message. STAY HOME. The rest was justification. If you do this you
can do the other things. Not because they are easy, but because they
are hard *(as someone said 17 years ago). They did not stop 'telling
Sid' until the deed was done.
Now we must stay alert.
How? What for? Are we expecting an invasion of body snatchers? More
immigrants by the zillion? Is Simon Cowell launching a new wave of
talent scouts? It is on a par now with
the jokey Stay Calm and Carry On. In fact that is what it means, says
an obviously aware and desperate Robert Jenrick. Stay Alert is code
for Stay Home according to his interpretation. Does he honestly think
we are stupid? What it means is go out
and have a bloody good time but keep your wits about you. Walls have
ears you know.
So we lurch from too
little too late to absolutely not enough ever. Boris and co threw the
elderly in care homes under a bus to save the NHS which they had
reduced to a pale shadow of its former glory. They denied those
people ventilators to die in agony in their beds. They left the
carers to face a dreadful death... as well as at risk of their own by
a Government not having maintained or managed stock of EMERGENCY
equipment like PPE well enough. They failed to start a
lockdown soon enough, failed to cancel major events, failed to
maintain testing, failed to maintain track and trace (despite its
long proven efficacy) and finally they have failed even to properly
conform to the five tests they said were essential before any kind of
lockdown could begin. I would support a slow,
controlled return to work but with the STAY HOME message still in
place and reinforced. I would back even thoughts that schools might
re-open providing the majority of those at risk were still told STAY
HOME. We are week, even
months away from any sort of normality – but we may now be only
days from a new surge. With news horrors in
care homes and the possible isolation Nightingale hospitals unused
and mothballed. And with an exhausted medical front line. If this benighted
Government does not pay soon they may yet retain power due a marked
absence of anyone able to vote at all!

Do we even know how many have been infected? If not then how do we know...

SOMETHING is wrong with our knowledge of coronavirus. At least in the UK but I think it may be wider. Tonight Michael Gove had the unenviable task of telling us that over 28,500 people in the UK had now died of the covid-19 disease it causes.
And that over 180,000 people had now tested positive for being infected with coronavirus.
That would imply (be sure it is wrong) that the mortality rate for coronavirus is well above 10%. That in fact for every 100 people infected 10 will surely die.
I attach a grim document which tells us the mortality rates for diseases in general.
And sure enough coronavirus is there at line 42. And the current global death rate is calculated at 7%. But it is already, and so far unconfirmed, at the bottom of a horror show of diseases and well above the very next in line - pertussis or whooping cough! Yes really that has a global infant victim mortality rate of 3.7%.
Small pox is lower. Measles is lower. The Spanish flu which killed 20 million or more at the end of the 1914-18 war is lower.
It isn't that simple and the list is complex but I worry. I really do. Because just now it is even higher in the UK at 28k dead out of 180k infected - you do the maths!


The mortality rate for covid-19 is currently much, much higher - but only among those (like me) who are 76 years old with underlying issues: Recovered cancer (leukaemia 2003/4) so two treatments of chemo followed necessarily by one of bone marrow transplant and, now, severe COPD - emphysema and bronchiectasis. My lungs have a life age of 95.
And only because so far we have not the foggiest idea how many people have really been infected. 28k into 18k goes x times; close to 6. Until we do it is vital we keep a sense of proportion. I am no fan of the ridiculous 'herd immunity' idea. That is only possible when an effective treatment is available and/or a vaccine.
So currently for people like me covid-19 is a straightforward, unabashed killer. But it hardly touches children, the young and even the young adults. And vastly more 30-60s survive than die.
What is mortality then? Are we handling this right at all?
Maybe those who get it should be sent to one of two places - hospital and when suitable to the newly minted isolation hospitals - the Nightingale Units.
Maybe with some care lockdown can be eased. Normal life can begin again for most and... well, yes.. it does mean consigning some of us to the grave that is already beckoning. But at least the rest of the world can get a life.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates

This is what we need right now to call Government to account

For many decades I have been an avid reader of Private Eye and right now it is doing a far better job of holding Government to account than either the mainstream, the digital or the social media.

Their medical writer(s?) under the pseudonym MD have (has?) this edition done the best job yet of examining the actions - and too many failures - of our national policy. And given I am no expert I am pleased to find that as I have said, following the science does not describe it at all.

From the moment this pandemic reached Britain (whenever that actually was!) errors of policy have followed. For a start of course the emergency supplies of PPE and the 'reserved spare' emergency capacity in the health service had been allowed to wither during ten years of Tory inspired austerity.

On that basis the knee-jerk herd immunity was a disaster. Then came the PPE problem and a devious downgrading of coronavirus to allow lesser protection to, apparently, be allowable.

Then there was the message to care homes – "you have nothing to worry about". In terms of Government intervention they were right. In terms of Covid-19 infection they were woefully wrong.

(MD does not say it but I believe it. That this decision was a cold-blooded means of protecting the weakened and ailing NHS to cope with what was coming. And it now appears to have continued with infected and allegedly recovering care home patients being sent from hospital to care home without testing or tested with a 30% fallible test.)

Testing started. Then stopped. Track and trace started. Then stopped. Yet we all know, from South Korea and others, that this was an essential step in protecting the NHS and saving lives.

Then 'stay home' came two weeks too late and after huge public gatherings. And was not rammed home hard enough to begin.

Now we come to loosen the lockdown. Am I confident we shall get that right? Don't even ask. But they cannot let the likes of me loose yet: too old, too complicated, too vulnerable, too much part of the 0.5%....

AND finally I'd like to share the Eye's leading article this edition. And this I shall quote at length:

LOSE-LOSE SCENARIO

PANDEMIC planning is the ultimate lose-lose scenario. The lives and livelihoods lost from the virus have to be balanced against the lives and livelihoods lost from the "treatment".

This virus is causing a surge of deaths particularly in the sick and elderly, whereas lockdown is causing a smaller surge in non-Covid deaths and a steady, sustained increase in harm to those who have their whole lives ahead of them.

Brutally put, 100 percent of us are making sacrifices to save 0.5 percent of us (or less).

Children are being harmed to save adults; the poor are being harmed more than the rich; and some people have become so conditioned to "stay at home" that not even a medical

emergency will tempt them to seek help.

Given such staggering complexity, the best one can hope for is an overall "harm minimisation" strategy. To get there, experts from all disciplines need to subject their models and data on the benefits and harms of any strategy to full public scrutiny. And politicians need to admit their errors in real time.

It has taken us more than three months to move from Patient Zero to mass testing and tracing. It would be churlish not to welcome Matt Hancock's 100,000 tests a day (even

though they included requests and promptly fell again), but thousands more lives might have been saved by earlier action. It is time for an apology.

Meanwhile, after the mothballing of the little-used Nightingale hospital in London, questions will be asked about the money and precious resources spent on the hospital — but it's worth noting that the NHS needs extra capacity in case it gets a second spike in infection.

To read it all go to this link in a day or two when it goes live (we subscribers get a bonus) : 
https://www.private-eye.co.uk/current-issue
 Or order your copy now...

The sick man of Europe again with 30,000 plus dead

THERE is still no clarity on the issue of how deadly coronavirus actually is. We know that it is worse for those over 70 with significant underlying health issues. We know it is worse for males. It is worse for members of the black and minority ethnic communities. We know that it barely affects those under 18.
But we have no clear idea why. We can make educated guesses and the educated specialists do, but hesitantly of course.
The disadvantaged old respond badly to the symptomatic progress of the virus.
Smoking, alcohol abuse and diabetes is more common among men of all ages.
The ethnic minorities are often proportionately greater numerically in the nursing and caring professions and live in close-knit communities.
The very young are fit, healthy and have immune systems untouched by the ravage of modern living.
But currently that is about it.

And we also cannot yet get a real handle on what the 'kill rate' is. Horrid phrase I know but it is an essential feature of all known viruses and diseases and it does not deserve dressing up.
The most recent study went from 2.36 per million for China to 124.16 for Italy. Neither will be correct and by how much in error is a long way from being known. And nationas vary wildly in size, density, population.
First you have to know how many have died. 30,000 plus in the UK.
Then how many have been infected – unknown so far but tested and proven about 180,000 plus in the UK.
Those figures would suggest 10% - in the graph I refer to we are 7.10% per million.
But we actually have no idea at all how many have been infected with coronavirus because so many have not been tested. Those who had no symptoms, those with mild symptoms and even those in care homes and the like, who were quite ill but recovered, may not in fact have had the virus. But it is probably a decent bet that, for every one tested and confirmed there will be five more untested, untreated and unconfirmed. Which would mean not 10% but 2%. That is double a serious influenza epidemic, even with a vaccine applied to many millions.
The problem is that influenza has become a less valuable yardstick it seems since we started vaccinating all the most vulnerable. In fact tin the 2018/2019 season that was about 11 million people. Even so about 10,000 deaths were recorded.
That is 10,000 out of a population of 60plus million. Well below 1% thanks to the vaccine. They would still mostly be older people. The same ones who are most at risk from coronavirus.

One curiosity in all this is a government statistic which so far has not been explained. We test a lot of people but only a fraction prove positive. But we claim to test only if symptoms are being displayed.
As of 9am on 3 May 945,299 people had been tested, of whom 190,584 tested positive.
It means that over 700,000 tests were negative. Curious do you not think?
It does tell us that nearly 200,000 people have definitely been infected. But what about the other 700,000. Why were they tested? And why are the tests now being carried out at units across the UK being rolled out so urgently? If so many are negative have we got the wrong parameters to qualify for atest?

I have a theory – that the vast majority of tests are (quite properly) carried out on front line health staff and that happily most remain virus free despite the PPE crisis. It would be nice if the government were to explain this – or maybe try a bit harder to ffind out what really is the total number infected.

If you want to see how close an eye we keep on the influenza disease this impressive report is the latest of an annual series: https://tinyurl.com/y3rd9fsm

A list of diseases and rate of death is here and below:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates