THE media this week
(15/4) suddenly woke up to two things.
First that a lot of people
have been doing their Covid-19 dying outside hospitals.
And second
that while the daily bulletin does not count these the Government, In
the form of the ONS, does.
This column has drilled
down a bit into the ONS (Office for National Statistics) data and
commented on the disparity between the Government death tolls and
that recorded by the ONS.
The difference is
caused by the fact that ALL hospital Covid deaths will have been
tested and proven. Out in the real world doctors opinions are counted
and there may never be recorded proof that the cause of death was,
even in part, Covid-19. And it may take days to be available at all.
So in general the
nations have been reporting the daily proven, hospital data (barring
it seems France... heigh ho). And so have we.
But the ONS data
contains a more puzzling fact, that the media has also pounced on
this week – more people seem to be dying than usual. In fact some
3,000 deaths appear to be additional to the norm plus Covid. So what
is occuring?
For the latest week
available (April 3) the ONS report:
16,387 deaths of all
ages and all causes.
10,305 deaths by
average of the last five years.
2,106 deaths, cause was
respiratory disease.
3,475 deaths, where
Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate.
So from this we know
that 3,475 deaths were attributed to Covid, this is higher than the
Government reported numbers and this is accounted for by the delays
caused by death in care homes or private homes.
We also know that
normally we would be seeing 2,106 deaths where respiratory factors
were involved – and this of course is where Covid strikes hardest
and puts people in ITI and ventilators.
But hang on – this
week April 3 the total deaths is 6,000 higher than average – not
just the 3,475 Covid cases.
So exactly what is
going n?
If we back up a week to
March 27 the total deaths in the week matches within a few per cent
the five year average. And so it does back to January when, as we
might expect, it is slightly up. But only slightly.
So now we do have a big
question. How many of the 2,106 deaths which are respiratory were
actually unidentified Covid?
We can infer this from
another statistic. The ONS lists the age groups – and every single
age range from 65 upwards is up – a total of 5,000 or so extra in fact.
So if more people in
the at risk age group have been dying than is normal, and more than
is declared by either Government hospital figures or ONS wider
numbers, can it be that we have a few thousand extra and unidentified
Covid death occuring?
It looks remarkably like
it to this amateur.
And if they were not
identified what if any sort of isolation was undertaken? None could be
a disaster.
