Vaccinate? Let's get it all done by Easter....

IT is not difficult to get a rough idea of how the delivery of Coronavirus vaccination will proceed in the UK. One cannot be accurate but I am willing to bet our working will be no worse than those used by this government.

So for a start we know how many flue vaccinations are given across the winter. That is 2.28 million in a period of seven months between September and March. Peak delivery is in October when 780,000 people will be vaccinated.

We also know immediately that is utterly inadequate in dealing with Covid-19. We need to reach at least 70% of the adult population – that's around 48 million people. At the peak flu rate it would take over four years.

So that won't work.

Now we also know how many readily available locations there are that are suitable for vaccinating people. The UK has 28,000 GP surgeries and 1,250 hospitals. More locations will be needed and made available but this is a good start for our sums. There are also private facilities that could easily be included. So let us say we have 30,000 locations.

We need two people for each vaccination team – one to jab and one to prep and clear away. It is doubtful that most GP surgeries could spare more than two team's worth, if that but let us average it at two units per site – that Is 60,000 units delivering injections. And at leas one vaccination needs two doses, a month apart.

How long will it take? Well the flu jab takes about three minutes total so with a clear run and no snags (maybe!) each unit could do 20 per hour. Let us assume normal working and assign 8 hours per day across five days. Each unit woluld deliver some 400 jabs per week.

So the 30,000 locations with two teams each could be delivering 2x400x30,000 jabs per week. That is actually 24,000,000 jabs. So in just about two months the job could be done, including those 'double jab' jobs.

But of course we know that those 28,000 GP surgeries took seven months to deliver 2.28 million flu jabs which are not new. So something must be wrong. Ah, of course, the human factor.

You see despite our best efforts the system depends on people just like us. And we are all liable to sickness, tiredness, injury, family activity, holidays, coronavirus etc, etc.

The reality is going to be very different. But even so if we want to get everyone in the core 70% vaccinated by Easter it looks very possible.

What betting that like PPE, test and trace, Nightingale Hospitals and practically every crooked contract issued it all goes horribly wrong? No, keep your money – the odds are way too short for a bet.

References: NHS England, ONS and You.Gov.

The latest NHS Digital data on general practice workforce showed there were 28,319 FTE GPs excluding registrars in December 2019. This was a reduction by 1% since December 2018, when the number stood at 28,596

The actual number, correct as at September 2019, is that there are 1,257 hospitals in the UK. This number includes the NHS Trust-managed hospitals and the additional private hospitals that are currently in use.

Flu vaccinations:

Month	2019/20	2020/21	Growth Rate
September	375,310	951,362	153.5%
October	780,969	809,068	3.6%
November	251,848	265,380	5.4%
December	82,793
January	19,771
February	8,614
March	5,448
Total	1,524,753	2,282,946	49.7%

Sharing the cost of covid-19 - FAIRLY!

THE huge cost of coronavirus needs to be shared fairly by the population of Britain and in accordance with their means. Only income tax can do this. Any other means is unfair and falls most heavily on those least able to pay - hard working families, the poor and pensioners on fixed incomes. And at the same time is most easily avoided or reduced by those most wealthy and able to pay.

For that reason I was horrified to hear my local council considering raising council tax to meet such costs! This is the most unfair tax of all, levied solely on the worth of a property which for vast numbers of people is not in any way connected to their ability to pay.

So I have further copied my letter to my MP, the Rt Hon James Cleverly with suitable additional comments. I sincerely hope others may feel inclined to take similar action. 

TEXT BEGINS: 

Dear Mr Cleverly,

You may have seen that I wrote this week to the Halstead Gazette regarding the costs of the coronavirus response and in particular how this may impact local councils. While my points were  directed specifically at the Braintree District Council they represent an opinion which I believe may be much more widely held.

I would ask you in your position as a local MP and former chair of the Conservative Party to look into this issue and to defend your local constituents against what may prove to be an unfair burden when compared to the national emergency. Indeed, a post code lottery, as our media friends are inclined to title such attacks on the hard working, the poorer and the pensioner.

TEXT OF LETTER: I was horrified to read that Braintree Council is considering raising council tax to pay for the cost of coronavirus. This has been a national emergency and  all the costs should be handled nationally. That way it can be evenly and fairly spread across all tax payers including the filthy rich. Instead a council tax hike will fall unfairly and unevenly on the hard working and the poorer as well as pensioners.

Typical Tory policy of course for Government to dodge its responsibilities and leave the locals to pick up the pieces,

Shame on you if you go ahead instead of fighting this shambolic Government. ENDS

Wonderful Emily and all in the round!

 

Last evening I enjoyed my first gig for over a year. Well not really; The Covid-friendly equivalent of a gig. This was the livestream performance by Emily Barker of her latest album from the Brunel goods yard at Stroud station.

There was of course no audience. Not present anyway. A few hundred did sign up for the event. But they watched on their devices and remotely. In my case on a deskbound laptop with wireless cans.

Emily was brilliant, the album is brilliant and her band was brilliant. But thinking since, I have become far more impressed by the commitment and professionalism required to achieve so much.

Consider. The band was not on a stage but arranged in a circle at some three metre separations. Six band and Emily so a circle of about 4-5 metres diameter. So it took some neat sound engineering to take those streams, reassemble them in traditional form and deal with environmental sound effects – Emily centre, artists to left and right – to produce an aurally correct stereophonic performance. Respect, man, respect.

Consider. There were no cheering eager people in the auditorium to spark the adrenalin on entry. The band chose to stroll on in the traditional way but it was to a silent room. Whatever prep Emily and her team went through to psyche themselves up for public performance would have to have been doubly effective this time. Respect eh?

And consider again. There was no feedback. Every artist lives off the adrenalin rush of response. Those magic moments in particular when an audience jumps decibels beyond enthusiastic and roars its approval. That is the confirming moment that powers the artists onward. Its absence last evening was palpable and tragic.

Yet Emily never once slipped from her accustomed and enchanting self – cool, keen, bang on pitch, never over-breathed, and delivering the same soul-searing commitment to every bar, every verse, every chorus. And the band was equally brilliant. It was momentarily possible to see flickers of uncertainty on their faces as the camera roved. After all whoever sat in a circle to deliver? In their ears the sound must have been different.

Could it be better? There is no way a band can see a remote audience – too complex to deliver, even if, Zoom-like it could be spread across screens it would mean little. But could they pick up the audio of our responses and feed them, aggregated into the hall? It would need encouraging the audience to clap, shout or whistle as if at a concert. And to ensure it sounded right and timely to the band. And would screen fatigue mean a dreadful silence was an inevitable risk? Maybe, but it would be worth the trial perhaps.

But then a vaccine is at least in view. Gigs will start again. But for now livestream is the thing. Brilliant work Emily.

www.emilybarkerhalo

www.darkmurmurationofwords

Every breath I take...

Now what should the next line be?

I am grateful for? Well of course.

Is surprisingly inadequate? Yes, that too of course.

Took a lot of effort? Yes, well naturally. I have severe COPD.

The only point I am making perhaps is that when the dreaded exacerbation arrives it is always a shock. This time I had a cold. Nothing special but for us COPD types any cold is special. This one really hit home.

I took anti-biotics and they did work - a bit. But since the last event (an amazing year ago) I have been diagnosed with potential congestive heart failure just to add to the mix. And with a high BP and pulse it does not take much to kick me over into that dreadful feeling of panic when you find you are not in control; that you are fighting for air, not just gasping.

So onto the steroids now to add to the diuretics needed for the ticker.

I know that this is how it goes. I am 77, I was diagnosed with emphysema and bronchiectasis 12 years ago and am now number 4, severe ,on the FEV1 scale. I have strained the ticker for too long now and it is showing signs of needing an MoT, except that is not available.

I am teetering on the brink of oxygen. I resist since it is too much of a signifier of the end game but I shall have to comply in due course. The idea of so many hours a day stuck in a groove is not appealing.

This year has been hard for us all of course. Coronavirus has changed our last years much for the worse. Shielding was hard for me and my wife, my carer. I started out logging all that went on. The old hack in me wanted to and my blog , One Man Went to Moan, started to fill up. Then I despaired of it all - the mess of PPE, the cruelty of the care homes, the criminal corruption of contracts, a Government of ineptitude and carelessness. I gave up.

I just checked at tottenhamtyke.blogspot.com/ and July 27 was my last effort. Few read it anyway.

Now I am trying another dose of anti-bs, steroids and sitting still. At least I can type. To carry on the song theme, They can't take that away from me.

More about the billion £s of PPE we did not get...

Some may recall that I recently wrote to my MP, the Rt Hon James Cleverly, regarding the issue surrounding the placing of something close to a billion £s of government contracts for PPE with companies who were manifestly unsuited to the task or who have not delivered or both.
He has replied. I take some small comfort from the following line in his response, which is otherwise anodyne: " If it is the case that contract commitments are not met, I am confident that my colleagues in the department will take action against organisations which have received money from taxpayers; I will certainly monitor this issue extremely closely."

The full transcript of his reply is here:

Dear Richard,

Thank you for contacting me about the supply of personal protective equipment to people working in health and social care.

I would like to reassure you that ensuring our frontline staff are properly protected is of paramount importance to me, and to my colleagues on all sides of Parliament. I know that my colleague the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care is taking this issue extremely seriously, and I welcome the collaboration between officials, NHS staff and our armed services over the past few months to help distribute supply of the equipment. I will continue to closely scrutinise steps being taken to ensure that all health and social care staff, whether they work in the NHS or other care facilities, are adequately protected and able to carry out their vital roles safely.

As part of an unprecedented response to this pandemic, my colleagues in the Department of Health and Social Care have drawn on the expertise and resources of a number of public and private sector partners to support our NHS and social care sector. PPE is created to strict specifications and requirements in order to ensure the safety of its users. The Government has published these specifications online and sought to hear from any manufacturers who can produce PPE in line with these requirements.

It is a testament to the ingenuity of British businesses that they have been able to adapt existing resources in a time of great need for the country, and I am extremely grateful to all organisations that have offered their services at this time. I am confident that these providers will be held to the highest standards to ensure that the best service possible is delivered. If it is the case that contract commitments are not met, I am confident that my colleagues in the department will take action against organisations which have received money from taxpayers; I will certainly monitor this issue extremely closely.

I welcome the creation of a cross-government PPE unit, led by Lord Deighton who helped deliver the London 2012 Olympics, to secure new supply lines from across the world. It has published rigorous standards against which it will buy. Expert procurement professionals have been drafted in to identify PPE suppliers from across the globe to meet the increasing demand for a growing list of PPE products. The Government taking an open source approach and involving partners around the world in a co-ordinated procurement programme. This is only one strand in the approach to increasing future supply of PPE. The Government is also calling on our homegrown industries to come forward to create new PPE manufacturing capabilities in the UK. Many businesses have generously come forward with offers to turn over their production lines as part of the national effort.

Thank you again for taking the time to contact me.
I have responded to him in the following terms:

Dear Mr Cleverly,

I thank you for your reply in which I take some small comfort from the following line: "I am confident that my colleagues in the department will take action against organisations which have received money from taxpayers; I will certainly monitor this issue extremely closely."

My own confidence is not as high and I too shall watch developments closely over the coming weeks and months. In due course there has to be some sort of reckoning for what has, or more notably, has not transpired during this emergency.

Yours faithfully,
Richard Woods

What is wrong with this Government? Can it not get anything right?

I was writing this as Johnson announced further relaxations...

At the outset I have to confess a serious distrust of all Tories and a horror of corruption in high places. So there is no chance I shall be soft in my criticism of Johnson and co. Still less when they have committed the cardinal sin of allowing a special adviser to take such extraordinary control over governmental affairs.

And of course panic causes strange effects. And there has never been more reason for panic than the onset of a killer virus that is a global pandemic. And one for which there is no obvious treatment and as yet no real sign of a vaccine.

But frankly events of the past few months go much further than mere failure to come up to scratch in the extraordinarily tough environment of a global catastrophe.

It all started with the utterly insane idea of 'herd immunity'. For that you need 60-70% of your sample to have had the disease AND be guaranteed immune. That might be OK for the common cold but this things kills and leaves others virtually disabled for life. And while spread is uncomfortably fast it is also too slow to wait that long. The man who said it should have been removed as far from the levers of power as possible. The Isle of Rockall for example. But instead they invited him in... and he is still here!

At my age and with my experience of emergency planning I am utterly astonished at the mess we have got ourselves in. Until, that is, I consider the previous decade of austerity.

Emergencies are planned for. That is a given, or should be. They always happen. Usually at the worst possible time. But this is what you have a Civil Service for. Complete with scientific and medical and technological and logistical expertise to look into the future, judge the need, and provide the essentials.

But the Tories are notoriously bad at planning ahead. And even worse at spending in advance of need. And worse still at laying the foundations of a public and welfare state.

So in the years of austerity they have cut and cut again. And those cuts have more than decimated our levels of preparedness. Made far worse by an accountancy juggle called Just In Time. And another called Current Cost Accounting.

Let me explain a little. Under older regimes you bought in advance what you needed for say one year's production, generation, activity, emergency. And stockpiled it. This was, the bean counters considered too costly. Expensive warehouses, armies of men with clip boards checking date, lifetime etc.

How much better they said to make it when you need it. So empty the warehouses, sack the checkers. Calculate your costs on the real costs, not cost plus storage and maintenance. Prices will come down. Prices did not come down. You may have noticed a steady rise.

And then there was the cost of building stuff. Depreciation. Build a hospital for £100m and calculate that it would lose value at say £5m a year, reaching zero at 20 years when replacement needed to be considered. But wait. That might be OK for Government but businesses need assets. So value the hospital at the cost of replacement RIGHT NOW. That way the asset would grow year on year and you could borrow squillions against the assets. Privatise those state businesses and guess what? They all use CCA instead of Historic Cost Accounting. They all have inflated asset books and vast debts, protected by assets that are actually not worth much at all.

How does this affect Government and emergency planning? Well for emergencies you need hospitals bigger than you do for day by day activity. So some wards were maintained but kept empty against sudden need. Some Intensive Care Units (or HDUs or whatever) ditto. And a score or two of big stuff like ventilators. If you do not have them when the crisis comes you have to build Nightingale units Just In Time.. too late!

And PPE? Yes of course, millions of items in store, kept under review and replaced as time wore on. Hand it all to the private sector and guess what? They dump it, fail to replace, argue for Just in Time (while actually CCA-ing the stuff!). And yes they did. So no PPE when it is needed. And you are not in the buying club either so a scramble to find it when you need it. People die.

And arrangements to use private services? Not kept up to date so not available at time of need. And so thousands of elderly crisis patients are sent back to care home to make space in the hospitals for the crisis you failed to plan for. And thousands die in agony, killing many of their carers.

And now we read of vast millions of contracts placed with unqualified and even insolvent companies to supply critical equipment. And without any safeguarding procedures. And often with mates of cabinet members.

And the much-vaunted Civil Service, who know about all these things and have done for years? Retired, redundant, too costly, austerity.... replaced with unskilled, incompetent special advisers with agendas and secret deals.

You can only blame Johnson and his bunch of buffoons. They were picked for their enthusiasm for Brexit, not their intelligence, experience or proven skills. They are incompetent and inept. They listen too willingly to their backers and their special advisers, fooled into believing these people know best.

Meanwhile the relatively few Tories with real public service ethics have been sidelined or left to grow old and go fallow. There is no way back for a generation. This cadre of clowns has been given five years (FIVE YEARS) to govern by another crackpot decision. They are praying that two things will happen: 1 - we will all forget what utter idiots they were and 2 - that in time they will get the hang of it.

Meanwhile people die, people go hungry, children miss school, families collapse, suicides happen, jobs vanish, food fails to reach the shelves, prices soar, medicines disappear, prices soar, theatre and halls close, libraries vanish, museums get dusty, HS2 never appears but costs squillions, Trident gets replaced but still isn't any use...

Can we really let this go on for another four years?

So many IFS and BUTS that now nobody pays any attention

THIS idiot Government has already trashed all the rules that were getting the covid-19 crisis under control. And if they get the spike they appear to want the economy will not just tank; it will crumble to dust.
It started with Cominic Scummings of course. He literally drove a Range Rover, wife and child through the rules. Twice.
Then they came up with the 'six may meet' rule which has opened the doors to all sorts of garden parties and gatherings. There's part of one in our communal garden right now. Spaced about 3-4 feet apart and sharing food etc.
Then came the space bubble idea. Choose a family and you can bond with them. IF you are alone. IF you are not shielding. But only one. And you can stay over - but one night only.
And now the shops are re-opening and there has already been a scrum in Oxford Street - outside Nike! Are we mad? Well it sure looks like it. What with 6,000 people at Raves in Manchester on top of protesters rubbing shoulders across the nations.


My career involved being part of an emergency planning team and one of the key issues was Keep It Simple Stupid. KISS went on to become a clarion call in management training too.
I can recall a psychologist adviser, skilled in public communications, who said something like: "You cannot afford even one IF unless you want to confuse your audience. So no IFS. And definitely no BUTS!"


Everything this incredibly inept Cabinet has done so far has been based on ifs and buts. And now no one seems to be listening. Which is what my professional opinion expected.


My sundered family has been planning a get together (six feet apart) this weekend. We shall for the first time in 12 weeks be in the company of BOTH daughters and their partners. Youngest daughter lives close enough for us to have met a couple of times; eldest way too far away.


But the care and attention we have been showing to this meeting is not justified by the care shown by our PM and his bunch of cronies.
Youngest daughter decided her garden(s) - they have three distinct areas - was not big enough to accommodate three groups all safely two metres apart. So we are off to the park opposite her home!
Food will be controlled; no sharing. Images of activities if shared will be by smartphone. Hugs and kisses are of course utterly banned. Indeed as yet we have not been given our time slot for passing through the gate into the park. I expect it imminently.
I expects a lot less from our PM and his shower.

What kind of world can we hope for?

THERE will be few charity shops on the high streets of Britain in the future. How can you ensure the clothes and others items are not infectious? And have them rummaged through. And make a profit.
There will be few places to stand at the bar and take the ale with your friends in Britain in the future. How can you chat at the bar and be six feet apart. And how do you turn a profit like that?
There will be few chances to meet your friends for a cosy chat over a fine dinner in the future. Six, eight to a table with room for staff to safely serve? And make a profit?
Your family doctor may have changed back to the 50s system of queuing just last year but it will be back to appointments in the future. And fewer seats for waiting.
And school and uni will take a long time to return to the best years of your life.
And holidays will take a long time to become as easy, or cheap, or accessible as they had become.

However...
Specialist shops are better able to serve safely – butchers, delis, fruiterers, farm shops. All have shown they can deliver their goods more safely. So they will, in the future.
Outdoor eating and drinking will be more the norm, maybe under canvas like those continental systems for sun and rain.
Al Fresco eating will be more normal in the future, allowing family gatherings with room to not breath each others air.

SO it will be a different world when we finally get used to living with coronavirus. For that is how it looks like being. Two things we need to start this brave new world. First we have to have a vaccine that truly protects the vulnerable and by doing so protects our health services. And secondly we have to find the therapeutic treatments that mean everyone has a better chance of coming home or even of not going to hospital at all.

THESE two things are essential if this dreadful disease is to be brought to heel.Like influenza has been. But it cannot happen if we kid ourselves it is any way like influenza. Or others kid us so. It is a truly deadly disease for all.
Why all? Well some young do get away with it but not all. And anyone of any age with serious health issues is at risk. And finally if you are over 65 it is very risky; over 80 and virtually a death sentence.
That is not the influenza way. And yet it once was. But for the flu – the real job; not man flu or whatever excuse you used last – we have remedies and treatments. And better still we have a vaccine which thus far we have endlessly re-purposed for each new strain.

MUCH scorn is rightly poured upon the current vogue for talking about herd immunity. But it is only the foolish modern approach which is wrong headed. If having covid-19 confers immunity as it seems to then it is absolutely true that one day herd immunity will be our protection. But the events from here to there are even more horrific it seems than we have yet to experience.
Only a vaccine can avoid the reality that tens, even hundreds of thousands must die to get enough of the population immune to protect us all. That is what makes the glib proclamations about it now so deeply offensive to us all. And especially to those who have worked, and struggled and fought to get our society to where it now was.Throwing us under a bus is a denial of all that is good about humanity.

BUT, on the evidence of our elected leaders today and for many weeks now, confidence in any of this is not high.
Let us hope that the oft-exhibited jingoism and national flag waving does not prevent us from finding treatments and vaccines for all. For all...

Should have gone to Specsavers - or better still security

READING the transcript of Dominic Cummings statement to the media (https://preview.tinyurl.com/ybtc27pa) is more illuminating than listening to him. It is full of holes and inconsistencies that give one serious pause for thought.
I am not going to attempt a forensic examination of it. Firstly I am not really qualified but more importantly I do not have the resources to check details. Others I am sure will.
But there are points which are easily examined. For example, right at the beginning of the saga Cummings tells us that the 'usual childcare' arrangements in London were not available. Yet by the time he returns 15 days later they are, in his words, able to 'enjoy childcare'. Either way it is an odd professional couple who have not nailed down their care package.
More critical to me is his failure, before embarking on the five hour drive to Durham, to consider his security options. He says he was under siege at home. Yet he does not turn to the extensive Number 10 security arrangements for assistance. Indeed the real escape for him was right there.
If he had explained the situation the security team would have advised him to take the Durham option BUT driven the family themselves. Why? Because the media scrum would have been left at Cummings home, securing him and his family AND ensuring their whereabouts were known.
Frankly I find it equally worrying that a senior adviser with all the knowledge he will have in his head is able to vanish from his home and remain in Durham ex-communicado. Or did he?

Then of course there is the clearly questionable eyesight test. His wife drives so why did she not drive if he was not up to it? That is what we did in similar circumstances when in west Wales. What would a short drive tell him more than was already obvious? Why if he was that bad did he risk his wife and the child? Once they knew he was OK why did they not turn around and come home?
It sounds far too much like a construct to explain why, on his wife's birthday, they took a drive to a beauty spot.
And we have as yet no idea how long they were there. CCTV en route will be checked pretty soon. If brief, OK. If not, then not OK.

One more point worth considering is how many words are spent convincing us of his enthusiasm for lockdown.This would be fine but we now have allegations of revisions to his blogs from that earlier period.
So much of what he writes has all the hallmarks of hindsight. A version put together to cover all the various allegations just well enough to be credible. Except not quite. One PR trick is visible. He concentrates on debunking one allegation that is palpably not true.
He reveals a chaotic situation inside Number 10. No testing of key personnel. People at work after being ill but untested, others gpoing off variously. He makes much of how important his work is, especially with his cheerleader off sick, but he appears able to vanish without rocking the boat.

In the end the real problem is simple. He made a bad decision. He has been slow to confess the details. He is a spad but became the story. The decent thing is always to fall on your sword. Thus he is further convicted of arrogance.
There are only three logical conclusions:
One – the Johnson secret he holds is massively significant;
Two – this is the diversion, the real story is huge and imminent and will break the day he announces he is quitting;
Three – It is he who is in charge of Johnson.
All are entirely improper, unreasonable and corrupt.

Johnson's Rasputin could spell his own demise...

WHEN I wrote in this blog only yesterday that Boris Johnson was committing political suicide in front of the entire nation I never for one moment thought that wiser counsel would not prevail and that this morning would dawn a Cummings-free zone.
So to find that he is still in post and that the chaos he has caused has become worse was disappointing. Until I realised that the smirk he wore leaving Downing Street last night was not only for the Rasputin-like hold he has on Boris Johnson but for the triumph of his game plan.
The man is a self confessed anarchist. What anarchists want is to create chaos and division on all sides. Job done then.

THERE are other possible explanations.
1 – He has dirt so extreme on Johnson that it is worth all this damage and disgrace to keep it under wraps;
2 – He is Machiavelli-like and taking the hit to protect Johnson from a much worse revelation that is just around the corner;
3 – Johnson has woken to the fact that his Covid strategy has been a cock-up from the get-go and wanted grounds to resign himself that might give him time to get clear of the implosion;
4 – The Russian report is worse than we fear.
It is also possible that he actually does think that Cummings acted properly, legally and with integrity. I find this the least likely of all because the price he is paying and will pay is too high for such bone-headed stupidity.

When the chips are down you throw the perpetrator under the bus. Sometime about now the 1922 Committee will be meeting. On the agenda will be – can we afford Johnson any more? No, it really will, but not in plain text of course. Johnson's problem now is that Cummings has become what he honestly always was – just an unelected, here today, gone tomorrow adviser. Disposable. Replaceable. He will be collateral damage to Johnson's earthquake departure.
Oh it won't happen right now. The Tory party dos not do things quickly. But the word will go out, the knife will go in and a slow death by exsanguination will occur.

SLIGHTLY ahead of Johnson's own departure, and quite soon, Scummings will find he has something better to do and will resign, rudely and arrogantly. And with a vast pay off and a huge non-disclosure deal.
There will be days of obfuscation of the main stream media (especially LK and RP) but after a short while Johnson will go, Raab will briefly hold the fort while a suddenly dusted down candidate for leadership will appear as if by magic and be offered to a primed and prepared party, to be elected by popular acclaim and take up the task of freeing the Tory party from the effects of DomCumVid-2020.
Providing there is no second wave of Covid-19 we shall slide quietly and easily towards a loosening of the rules. Trips to Durham will be offered to those willing to appear at the daily presser and NOT mention Cummings, Johnson, fatherhood or parenting. Take up will be low.

Defending the indefensible and other disastrous errors

THE nation has just watched a Prime Minister commit professional suicide. Well most of us have. Two other audiences remain, those who did not watch and those who believe Boris Johnson is the messiah.
It is possible I am exaggerating but I doubt it. For Boris Johnson did not merely defend his special adviser Dominic Cummings. He did not merely refuse to sack him. He endorsed his actions. Which means the buck has moved up a level to the Prime Minister's own desk.
As a retired PR adviser and consultant I listened in mounting horror to the foolishness of Johnson's words. Bad enough that he chose to defend the indefensible actions of his man. Bad enough too that he should have called his actions reasonable and legal. But then he set about lying to show that the interpretation put upon the regulations was justified by the words in them.
This is not only untrue but the facts of this case do not meet even the extreme interpretation that Johnson has put upon them.


If you brief a senior executive on a breach of the rules you have to make sure they understand what their audience understood. Stay Home. Short sweet and eminently supported by the man himself and all of his acolytes. And resulting in huge personal, emotional and familial sacrifices by the population. Not sit at home and think about it. Not figure out how to avoid it. Not use your heartfelt desire to do something else. But Stay Home.


It is worth just examining the probity of Cummings claim, which Johnson so handsomely endorsed.
He and his wife are both high powered employees with work demanding long hours and flexibility. They live in a nice London house with a four year old son. To ensure his care they have a nanny. I will just say that again since it is something the media seems unable to grasp. They have a nanny. Presumably to provide support for their child when they are not available. Hmmm.
But beyond that they will have a wide circle of friends in the area. And they both have family working and living in London. Some of Cummings chums and family work in number 10. So the last problem they were confronted with when Mrs Cummings announced she had covid-19 symptoms was child care.
The regulations state that in this circumstance the family should self-isolate, at home. Mrs C would use one room and facilities; the others the rest until things changed or they had been tested or 14 days had elapsed. No problem you might say for the Cummings family.
But he must have asked himself, why do we want people to stay home? Surely they can do their jankers somewhere else? No. Track and trace requires that the trackers and tracers know where you are. If they spoke to the source of Mrs C 's infection they would come knocking on the Cummings's door. No one home? Where are they? They could find them but it would take time.
And by then Mrs C would have given it to Mr C, the child may have it, the people they went close to at the motorway stop where they took a pee, fettled the child and bought fluids... well anyway you get the point.


The rules have a purpose, the purpose was the safety of the entire family including the four year old child. Cummings ignored all that and decided he was above the rules and could do what he wanted – see his parents, honour his mum's birthday and get out of the London hell hole while they recovered.
And he had the infernal cheek to refuse to quit, laugh at the issue, tell us he doesn't care how it looks (thus insulting his boss and the cabinet). And then his boss throws the entire covid-19 strategy under a bus along with the reputation of the Tory party. For what?
To save the neck of a man who is an avowed anarchist. Judgement? Johnson never has had any and has never proved it so conclusively. Now the issue is – Johnson

Do as I tell you, not what I do...

WHERE to begin on the real background to Dominic Cummings scuttle off to mummy? Maybe I start by saying how deeply ashamed I am to be British these days. I hate that. Britain always stood for something. Now it stands for nothing. Worse than nothing.

Many years ago, when a company I worked for was struggling at a crossroads in a fast developing business a colleague said we were “in danger of losing our sense of true north”. He was so right. And this is where this appalling Government is leading us – astray. Off the path. Away from the moral high ground into the depths of the talgy wood, where the really nasty gripper grabbers walk.

LET us begin by examining what is represented by Cummings actions and public acceptance of the lockdown rules. If the rules are flexible for Cummings will anyone follow them? Well if he accepted he was wrong and resigned no harm would be done. If he did not accept he was wrong but was sacked for his behaviour the rules would be reinforced.

But if he claims what he did was fine and the PM and Cabinet – as they are – back him then irreparable harm will be done. How much will it matter?

WE are now past the first peak and are said to be reasonably confident there will not be a second. But just in case we are putting a major test and track service in place to contain any resurgence. This process was unwisely stopped only a week or two into the crisis. On that basis it must be the case that if the lockdown is eased too fast a second peak becomes more likely.

And that will be made even more certain if public adherence to the rules is damaged by a piece of favouritism by the PM and Cabinet.

So what do they really think they are playing at? Advisers are ten a penny, here today and gone tomorrow hirelings. If the public good can be best served by dumping or even better sacking him then that is the right decision.

But they are busy chummying up to back him. Risking their entire lockdown strategy on the mis-directed whim of a sick man who may not even have been in full possession of his wits.

THE moral bankruptcy and the dereliction of public duty this implies is terrifying. It betrays a Government infinitely more interested in its own power and dogma than the well being of the public it serves.

That this can already by implied by their earlier failures – especially in the area of care homes – leads to only one real conclusion:

Boris Johnson and his Tory Government have no interest in the well-being of the British people. I so accuse. I just wish they would sue me for libelling the cretinous, criminal and morally corrupt bunch of them.

The Cummings and Goings of Dominic:

27 March - Cummings seen running along Downing Street shortly after the prime minister posts video saying he has contracted virus.
28 and 29 March - Over weekend, Cummings is said to have developed coronavirus symptoms.

30 March - Downing Street confirms Cummings is self-isolating after developing symptoms of the virus.

31 March - Joint investigation by The Guardian and the Daily Mirror, shows Cummings travelled to his family's farm in Durham.

31 March - Cummings's family spoken to by the police. Durham Constabulary said: Officers made contact with the owners of the address who confirmed that the individual in question was present and was self-isolating in part of the house.

14 April - Cummings is pictured in Downing Street after recovering from coronavirus.

22 May - The story breaks.

23 May - Cummings statement claims it was reasonable action to protect child; Number 10 backs him.

POINTS: Cummings family have a nice established home in London . They have a nanny to care for their four year old son. He is a well-paid adviser. Many family members work in Government at Number 10 and could have supported him. He drove while unwell. It is reported that the weekend he drove to Durham was his mother's birthday.

Has coronavirus murdered the bucket list?

HOW likely are you to go jetting around the world after we finally escape from coronavirus? Will you really want to spend 10 or more hours in an aircraft with 2-300 other people, all breathing very much the same air just to say 'been there, done that'? Really?
If we examine first what turned a Wuhan epidemic into a world wide pandemic killing hundreds of thousands of innocent people we find it was aviation what dunnit.
China is not the place it was a few decades ago. No way. Today it is as highly connected as any other country.
And the people of Wuhan – all umpty-ump millions – are just like us. They have bucket lists and reasons to fly far and wide.
So when sometime in December 2019 the first few people got infected with coronavirus they had not the foggiest idea it had happened. Neither did anyone else at first. So they got on their planes and flew far and wide. And into Wuhan came many thousands more who sampled the delights and set off home, with more souvenirs than they realised.
It is no good blaming China for this part of the disaster – they knew no more in the first few days than anyone else. Forget where the virus started – once it was travelling it was inevitably going to be a pandemic. Days would pass before any symptoms raised alarm bells.

Looking back at the great influenza pandemic of the post WWI decade and which killed in the multi-millions, what spread that was soldiers going home. It originated maybe in Spain but it took the armies of the suddenly peaceful world to get it world-wide.
So here at Wuhan. And we know it and the airlines of the world are virtually grounded. Or should be. And the cost of this disaster, which their profitable activities took to the world, is so great that they will never be the same again. No really, never.
For even when they begin to fly again they will be a shadow of their former selves. And I believe we, their customers, will be harder to find. Much harder.
For not only will we all be a lot more cautious but two economic realities will bite hard. We will all have less money to spend, recovering individually and nationally, and the cost of flying will never be as low as it was 2019.

We all know more today about the reality of what happens on board. At 30,000 feet the air is thin as Everest and bitterly cold – sub-zero. Aircraft cannot carry oxygen for their passengers so they use what they have in the cabin and draw in and heat up extra – about 25-30%. They operate the cabin at about 9lbs per sq in instead of the 14.8lbs at ground level.
To be fair this gives them a complete air change every few minutes. But pretty much all of it will have passed through pretty well all of the lungs on board by then...
And while on the ground the air is mostly still and most viruses fall harmlessly down, in the cabin it is different. Your mouth throws air and virus-laden droplets forward. They are heavy and affected by air resistance so they fall down and six feet is safe. In the air they fall into the back of the seat in front and hair of the occupant. And your nose points down, for a reason. A sneeze generates droplets at 200 mph. Should you sneeze (and who does not at 500 knots in dry cabin air?) those droplets will fall in your lap or on you magazine or tray. The cabin air is on the move all the time. Those droplets could be anywhere in a few seconds.
Of course in a full load of say 250 passengers your average 757 or A380 the manifest will include only a few coronavirus carriers. Say back in Wuhan there were four on each flight out. The re-infection number (R) back then was high, maybe 3-4. So in the first hour say the four infected 12-16. They in turn hit 36-48 in the next hour and they got say 120 in the next... by the time they landed practically everyone on board, including crew, could be infected.
Life is never quite that cruel but even if only 50 stepped off with the virus the outlook was already pretty grim. And that was one aircraft.

When the airlines get flying again is an open question and what rules they will have to follow is unknown as yet. But one thing I suggest is certain. And leads to another:

• Unless we have a vaccine the rules will be draconian.
• And even if we do, only those WITH immunity will get free, unfettered travel.

I suggest the first real casualty in the travel industry will be the bucket list.

Complacency at the heart of the process

The row that has erupted about Keir Starmer's attack on the PM over the care home situation has reduced to the level of a 'you did-I didn't' playground spat.
But however you view the quote that Starmer used, what it demonstrates utterly is that the Government was complacent at the time and has remained so since - and that they were not following the science.
It was first published on February 25 and remained in place until March 12.
By Feb 25 it was well known that Covid-19 was into France and appearing in Britain. Indeed current evidence suggest we may have at least one death in January. But leaving that aside. Everyone knows that care homes are rife with viral influenza during the flu season.
So how could anyone state that "it was very unlikely that anyone receiving care in a care home or the community will become infected (with coronavirus)".
But worse the incubation period for coronavirus was not established but it was quickly know that it was up to 14 days. So any advice given at that time needed to be updated daily.
The tragedy is that another two weeks passed without any attempt to ensure that major steps were taken at all levels and in all situations to build up reserves of testing kits, PPE, oxygen, oxygen delivery kit and ventilators.
It all smacks of a piece of guesswork by an adviser rather than anything scientifically based. Indeed one could be forgiven for fearing it has more to do with herd immunity theory. If so it must surely be time for a wholesale clear out of the special adviser dug out at Downing Street?

The who, what, when, and why of letting thousands die in care homes....

ROUGHLY a month ago I wrote about the spiralling deaths in care homes and wondered how it was happening. I even suggested it might be part of the Tory Government strategy to let the deaths rip in care homes rather than add them to the burden threatening to overwhelm the NHS.
Today in the House a new leader of the Labour party finally brought the PM to book on the subject. Oh the mad Tory supporters are busy claiming the advice back in March that care homes were not much at risk from coronavirus was taken out of context. Indeed Johnson lied once again by saying Starmer was wrong.
He was not. As clear as the indecent majority won by Johnson and co the care homes were told not to worry; they were not at significant risk. It was tosh at the time. It has been rubbish all along. And it is now visibly bollocks.
It will be some time before we know what the actual number of covid-19 deaths in care homes is. But it is already well above the numbers quoted by the forensically careful Keir Starmer.
I shall watch that row burn with interest. But today I would like to remind everyone of what all this represents, starting with the fact that people put into care homes are old, sickly, vulnerable and in many cases , alone. And that in the main the care they receive is not about life saving but about life caring and, if hospice does not intervene, providing a peaceful environment in which to slip this mortal coil. It's what they and their families pay for.

So the questions must be:

• WHY in God's name were those found to be ill with covid-19 NOT sent to hospital to receive intensive care and ventilation?
• WHO decided they should instead die an horrific and suffering death while spreading their dread disease among those brave enough to serve them?
• WHO indeed was it who decided that if they did get to hospital but were deemed not worthy of all this they were sent back whence they came, to die a horrific etc etc...
• WHO massaged the figures so that for weeks care home deaths were NOT reported at all?
• WHEN and by whom was that decision finally changed, only for the figures to continue being fudged?
• WHEN were GPs told or guided NOT to list coronavirus on the death certificate but only add it as contributing factor?
• WHEN will Johnson, Hancock and co finally admit the truth?

Out of confusion comes forth obvious guilt....

So my scepticism about the new coronavirus policy was justified. Confusion reigns. Clarity we do not have. And a spike in infection seems highly likely.
Let us start with who should be told first. After discussion and agreement in cabinet (did it happen?) it should be put to Parliament, where it will be further debated and the chance for clarifications can be met. This will be reported on. (This point will recur.) And the devolved nations should be consulted. Clearly they have not as they disagree vehemently with Johnson.
Then the PM or some chosen minister will tell the nation about it. If it warrants that. And they will make an address to the nation. Probably live. To be fair Churchill was often recorded but then his intake of brandy required it so we are told.

So why did Johnson choose to tell the nation first? It can only be for one of two reason or a combination of both.

• First he is not well enough to reliably deliver the message coherently in one take. To be honest he has not looked well since he came out of hospital.
• Second he wanted to ensure clarity and avoid the risk that reportage from a contentious House of Commons might be confusing.

Well the first is OK but frankly this tiny jiggering of the rules and wholesale loss of clarity could have seriously done with some testing in the House.
There is a third available explanation.  Johnson wanted to take credit for the first steps in lifting the lockdown; to be fully identified as the man who did it. Or, to put it another way, Johnson was still playing politics with the life and economy of the nation.

It is now clear that the Government accepts, albeit tacitly, that serious mistakes were made early on. Some even before the pandemic. Emergency stock of PPE was drastically low and under managed. Our capacity for testing, track and trace was similarly depleted, especially against our success in the past.
The NHS was under resourced and what little reserve capacity it had against major emergencies was hopelessly compromised.
But instead of responding rapidly to offset these failings they hesitated. Instead of following the science, as they claim, they delayed doing so. As a result, many things that might have been done as early as February were not done.

• Air travel continued unhindered and has done until now. 
• Major public events were not cancelled. 
• No steps were taken to guard against disaster in the care home. 
• A couple of headline grabbing hospital builds were begun. 

But as late as early March the science was saying lockdown now..They waited again to March 23. Thousands died.
And somewhere the care home situation was allowed to escalate out of control. One could be forgiven for taking the cynical view that I do. The elderly in care homes were NOT offered hospitalisation and thus no ventilators simply to save the NHS. That they could have gone to the Nightingale Hospitals (and still could have until last week) was not it seems considered.
Instead these old, frail people who had lived through the war we so recently lauded, were allowed to lie in their ordinary beds, tended by extraordinary people in less than adequate protective gear, to subside into gasping agony as the disease ate away at their lungs, their kidneys, their livers and finally their lives.
One day, good people of Britain, this man Johnson and his misbegotten gang of fools and rogues must be made to pay.

Cough... ahem... excuse me would you mind terribly if...

YOU might be forgiven, this Sunday, the 10th of May, 2020 (mark this date) to think the Tory Government had suddenly discovered clemency, charity, compassion.
Suddenly the harsh words and deeds have given way to softness and
kindness. But you would be wrong.
The slogans that are essential to any major campaign, be it to defeat
coronavirus or Corbynistas, are necessarily firm, aggressive,
positive. Stop. Save. Protect. Indoors. Lives. The NHS. Now we have stay alert,
control the virus, save lives. And uncertainty now
reigns supreme. I am alert. Where should I be, being alert? I cannot
control the virus, even the scientists cannot do that. Save Lives –
I can do that. How? It is complete bollox.
And if it were the work of a paid agency you would not pay them. Can
you honestly imagine this being the outcome of hiring Tim Bell, or
the Saatchis? Really? No. This is the
standard camel produced by the committee for race horse production.
Ungainly, unsettled and unappealing. Donkeys are not in it. They had a strong
message. STAY HOME. The rest was justification. If you do this you
can do the other things. Not because they are easy, but because they
are hard *(as someone said 17 years ago). They did not stop 'telling
Sid' until the deed was done.
Now we must stay alert.
How? What for? Are we expecting an invasion of body snatchers? More
immigrants by the zillion? Is Simon Cowell launching a new wave of
talent scouts? It is on a par now with
the jokey Stay Calm and Carry On. In fact that is what it means, says
an obviously aware and desperate Robert Jenrick. Stay Alert is code
for Stay Home according to his interpretation. Does he honestly think
we are stupid? What it means is go out
and have a bloody good time but keep your wits about you. Walls have
ears you know.
So we lurch from too
little too late to absolutely not enough ever. Boris and co threw the
elderly in care homes under a bus to save the NHS which they had
reduced to a pale shadow of its former glory. They denied those
people ventilators to die in agony in their beds. They left the
carers to face a dreadful death... as well as at risk of their own by
a Government not having maintained or managed stock of EMERGENCY
equipment like PPE well enough. They failed to start a
lockdown soon enough, failed to cancel major events, failed to
maintain testing, failed to maintain track and trace (despite its
long proven efficacy) and finally they have failed even to properly
conform to the five tests they said were essential before any kind of
lockdown could begin. I would support a slow,
controlled return to work but with the STAY HOME message still in
place and reinforced. I would back even thoughts that schools might
re-open providing the majority of those at risk were still told STAY
HOME. We are week, even
months away from any sort of normality – but we may now be only
days from a new surge. With news horrors in
care homes and the possible isolation Nightingale hospitals unused
and mothballed. And with an exhausted medical front line. If this benighted
Government does not pay soon they may yet retain power due a marked
absence of anyone able to vote at all!

Do we even know how many have been infected? If not then how do we know...

SOMETHING is wrong with our knowledge of coronavirus. At least in the UK but I think it may be wider. Tonight Michael Gove had the unenviable task of telling us that over 28,500 people in the UK had now died of the covid-19 disease it causes.
And that over 180,000 people had now tested positive for being infected with coronavirus.
That would imply (be sure it is wrong) that the mortality rate for coronavirus is well above 10%. That in fact for every 100 people infected 10 will surely die.
I attach a grim document which tells us the mortality rates for diseases in general.
And sure enough coronavirus is there at line 42. And the current global death rate is calculated at 7%. But it is already, and so far unconfirmed, at the bottom of a horror show of diseases and well above the very next in line - pertussis or whooping cough! Yes really that has a global infant victim mortality rate of 3.7%.
Small pox is lower. Measles is lower. The Spanish flu which killed 20 million or more at the end of the 1914-18 war is lower.
It isn't that simple and the list is complex but I worry. I really do. Because just now it is even higher in the UK at 28k dead out of 180k infected - you do the maths!


The mortality rate for covid-19 is currently much, much higher - but only among those (like me) who are 76 years old with underlying issues: Recovered cancer (leukaemia 2003/4) so two treatments of chemo followed necessarily by one of bone marrow transplant and, now, severe COPD - emphysema and bronchiectasis. My lungs have a life age of 95.
And only because so far we have not the foggiest idea how many people have really been infected. 28k into 18k goes x times; close to 6. Until we do it is vital we keep a sense of proportion. I am no fan of the ridiculous 'herd immunity' idea. That is only possible when an effective treatment is available and/or a vaccine.
So currently for people like me covid-19 is a straightforward, unabashed killer. But it hardly touches children, the young and even the young adults. And vastly more 30-60s survive than die.
What is mortality then? Are we handling this right at all?
Maybe those who get it should be sent to one of two places - hospital and when suitable to the newly minted isolation hospitals - the Nightingale Units.
Maybe with some care lockdown can be eased. Normal life can begin again for most and... well, yes.. it does mean consigning some of us to the grave that is already beckoning. But at least the rest of the world can get a life.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates

This is what we need right now to call Government to account

For many decades I have been an avid reader of Private Eye and right now it is doing a far better job of holding Government to account than either the mainstream, the digital or the social media.

Their medical writer(s?) under the pseudonym MD have (has?) this edition done the best job yet of examining the actions - and too many failures - of our national policy. And given I am no expert I am pleased to find that as I have said, following the science does not describe it at all.

From the moment this pandemic reached Britain (whenever that actually was!) errors of policy have followed. For a start of course the emergency supplies of PPE and the 'reserved spare' emergency capacity in the health service had been allowed to wither during ten years of Tory inspired austerity.

On that basis the knee-jerk herd immunity was a disaster. Then came the PPE problem and a devious downgrading of coronavirus to allow lesser protection to, apparently, be allowable.

Then there was the message to care homes – "you have nothing to worry about". In terms of Government intervention they were right. In terms of Covid-19 infection they were woefully wrong.

(MD does not say it but I believe it. That this decision was a cold-blooded means of protecting the weakened and ailing NHS to cope with what was coming. And it now appears to have continued with infected and allegedly recovering care home patients being sent from hospital to care home without testing or tested with a 30% fallible test.)

Testing started. Then stopped. Track and trace started. Then stopped. Yet we all know, from South Korea and others, that this was an essential step in protecting the NHS and saving lives.

Then 'stay home' came two weeks too late and after huge public gatherings. And was not rammed home hard enough to begin.

Now we come to loosen the lockdown. Am I confident we shall get that right? Don't even ask. But they cannot let the likes of me loose yet: too old, too complicated, too vulnerable, too much part of the 0.5%....

AND finally I'd like to share the Eye's leading article this edition. And this I shall quote at length:

LOSE-LOSE SCENARIO

PANDEMIC planning is the ultimate lose-lose scenario. The lives and livelihoods lost from the virus have to be balanced against the lives and livelihoods lost from the "treatment".

This virus is causing a surge of deaths particularly in the sick and elderly, whereas lockdown is causing a smaller surge in non-Covid deaths and a steady, sustained increase in harm to those who have their whole lives ahead of them.

Brutally put, 100 percent of us are making sacrifices to save 0.5 percent of us (or less).

Children are being harmed to save adults; the poor are being harmed more than the rich; and some people have become so conditioned to "stay at home" that not even a medical

emergency will tempt them to seek help.

Given such staggering complexity, the best one can hope for is an overall "harm minimisation" strategy. To get there, experts from all disciplines need to subject their models and data on the benefits and harms of any strategy to full public scrutiny. And politicians need to admit their errors in real time.

It has taken us more than three months to move from Patient Zero to mass testing and tracing. It would be churlish not to welcome Matt Hancock's 100,000 tests a day (even

though they included requests and promptly fell again), but thousands more lives might have been saved by earlier action. It is time for an apology.

Meanwhile, after the mothballing of the little-used Nightingale hospital in London, questions will be asked about the money and precious resources spent on the hospital — but it's worth noting that the NHS needs extra capacity in case it gets a second spike in infection.

To read it all go to this link in a day or two when it goes live (we subscribers get a bonus) : 
https://www.private-eye.co.uk/current-issue
 Or order your copy now...