Saturday 4 April 2020

When wiil it all... not so fast friends

SO much talk now about when will it all end. Way too soon to ask I fear folks.
I don't pretend any expertise but as a former emergency planner I cannot see any lifting of the 'lockdown' (it isn't really) until we have some really significant improvements - and as yet it is still going the other way.
Of course we have no real idea on how many people are being infected in the UK (never mind the rest of the world).
We have to just guess at that so far. Apparently we have tested as of today (3/04) 183,190 people, of which 41,903 were confirmed positive.
How that actually works I have no idea. Most young fit people apparently get no symptoms and thus will not report at all. The next group will get only mild symptoms and may report but will not be tested. Those needing hospitalisation, for whatever symptoms eventually will be tested.
So if there were just 5 unreported and untested for every one confirmed it would meansome 220,000 cases. Some suggest it is double that.
This would suggest a mortality rate between 1 and 2+%.
The rate of increase in confirmed cases and deaths continues to rise at a rate suggesting the reinfection rate - the R number - is still well above 2.
I would strongly suggest (and hope) that there will be no reduction in 'lockdown' until the R number looks to be well below 1 - a non-epidemic condition. And reasonably sustained.
When? How long is the piece of string. Maybe a month to six weeks? But I am not betting.
Even then I personally would not wish to see any let up in the international travel situation. This virus spread world wide due to global aviation coupled with inadequate handling and, eventually, quarantine operations at airports.


Side issue: Today's virus figures are:
Coronavirus Cases:
41,903
Deaths:
4,313
Recovered:
135
Puzzle - what does the 'recovered figure really mean? Surely not that only 135 out of those min ICU and on ventilators have recovered in the UK? The figure from other places has suggested as many as 40% recover and leave hospital.
My guess, for what it is worth is that this figure does not belong in this grouping as it applies to those recovered TODAY in direct comparison with those who DIED today.
Any of our brave band of media hacks want to discover for us?

Friday 3 April 2020

How I came to join the 1.5m club

TODAY I officially became a member of the 1.5m club. I received a welcoming letter that confirms I am one of the 1.5 million people rated "extremely clinically vulnerable" to the effects of covid-19 - coronavirus.(Side bar: Impressed that already the spellcheck picked up a mistype n coronavirus!)
Now I am in sympathy with the philosophy behind the bid to shield all us super risky oldsters from the bug. Not because I think it is the best way forward but it is the most humane.
The letter is two sides of A4 and printed in about 9-10 point arial or similar. Single spaced. Bit hard for old eyes I suggest.
It is not badly written and fairly clear in messaging in the main. But it does leave a few things begging.
It stresses that people in my category 'should not leave your home'. Even for shopping, GP appointments or other essential services. Not even for exercise!? Humanity is in short supply all of a sudden.
You should allow essential carers and the like in but make them wash their hands thoroughly on arrival. Thank heavens - after all they will have visited loads of people in my state.
Food deliveries and medication should be left at the door. I assume you collect them later but it does not say. It also fails to say that actually leaving them in the open air overnight will kill the coronavirus. But it will.
It says prescriptions should be delivered - frankly we have been working on that for some days now. I will keep you posted!
Now comes an interesting bit: "In your home, if you live with others you should minimise the time you spend with them in shared spaces like the kitchen, bathroom or sitting areas, and keep shared spaces well ventilated". Hmmm.
Like a wife/husband/partner for instance.
Apparently yes, since they advocate sleeping apart. In separate rooms. What the taxed spare? Obviously the writer is not over 70. But then they suggest using separate bathrooms!
My God! Are we all supposed to have two? I am really amazed. We have to let spare bedrooms or get taxed on them but we can have as many bathrooms as we want! Sadly of course the vast majority of recipients of the letter will be in possession of just one bathroom. So they suggest cleaning it every time you use it. Humanity dies again - most 70+ have trouble cleaning themselves never mind the entire bathroom.
They say avoid using the kitchen when others are doing so. Ours is so small now that my wife is saying that all the time.
And take your meals back to your room where possible. What and eat sitting on the spare bed! I am 76 you know. Digestion has to be aided these days!
There is a list of things we can do to ensure help - but they mostly involve using the internet. That is fine for me but there are 40+ other vulnerable people in this flats block - a mere handful have any sort of computing device.
My worst moment came right at the end. Apparently this has come to me from a brand new friend called Matt who signs off "yours ever". EVER! It turns out this is one Matt Hancock, secretary of state for health and social care. Ever!? Please no!
I am an old pro at this sort of stuff. That kind of friendly is bizarre and worthless. No idea who is advising these people (surely not DomCum?) but at least the other signatory, Mr Robert Jenrick, secretary of state for housing, communities and local government has not fallen for the schmooze crap.