Why don't the numbers add up?

THE media this week (15/4) suddenly woke up to two things. 

First that a lot of people have been doing their Covid-19 dying outside hospitals. 

And second that while the daily bulletin does not count these the Government, In the form of the ONS, does.

This column has drilled down a bit into the ONS (Office for National Statistics) data and commented on the disparity between the Government death tolls and that recorded by the ONS.

The difference is caused by the fact that ALL hospital Covid deaths will have been tested and proven. Out in the real world doctors opinions are counted and there may never be recorded proof that the cause of death was, even in part, Covid-19. And it may take days to be available at all.

So in general the nations have been reporting the daily proven, hospital data (barring it seems France... heigh ho). And so have we.

But the ONS data contains a more puzzling fact, that the media has also pounced on this week – more people seem to be dying than usual. In fact some 3,000 deaths appear to be additional to the norm plus Covid. So what is occuring?

For the latest week available (April 3) the ONS report:

16,387 deaths of all ages and all causes.

10,305 deaths by average of the last five years.

2,106 deaths, cause was respiratory disease.

3,475 deaths, where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate.

So from this we know that 3,475 deaths were attributed to Covid, this is higher than the Government reported numbers and this is accounted for by the delays caused by death in care homes or private homes.

We also know that normally we would be seeing 2,106 deaths where respiratory factors were involved – and this of course is where Covid strikes hardest and puts people in ITI and ventilators.

But hang on – this week April 3 the total deaths is 6,000 higher than average – not just the 3,475 Covid cases.

So exactly what is going n?

If we back up a week to March 27 the total deaths in the week matches within a few per cent the five year average. And so it does back to January when, as we might expect, it is slightly up. But only slightly.

So now we do have a big question. How many of the 2,106 deaths which are respiratory were actually unidentified Covid?

We can infer this from another statistic. The ONS lists the age groups – and every single age range from 65 upwards is up – a total of 5,000 or so extra in fact.

So if more people in the at risk age group have been dying than is normal, and more than is declared by either Government hospital figures or ONS wider numbers, can it be that we have a few thousand extra and unidentified Covid death occuring?

It looks remarkably like it to this amateur.

And if they were not identified what if any sort of isolation was undertaken? None could be a disaster.